So, A new study in Science Advances by Wei Liu and colleagues
at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and the University of Wisconsin-Madison has important implication... link
to article about study in layman's terms.
To break it down. A minor correction of the climate change prediction models had unexpected results, showing that the real world Gulf Stream was actually significantly less stable than previously thought and that at point where atmospheric CO2
was double the pre-1990 levels then the Gulf Stream collapsed over a time span of 100 to 300 years [with an error bar of +/- ~50 years]...
Which, since we are already almost at
that tipping point, means that the Gulf Stream will start decreasing in strength soon. [if it isn't already]
In every scenario I've seen, this leads to bad things for Britain. Like, a climate more like Norway. I.e Wetter summers and much colder winters for a start. Depending on the decay rate, we can expect to feel the climatic shift within <25 years, losing half of the contribution of the gulf stream by then, at worst...
Europe would also be pretty hard hit, France would see it's growing season cut by a half to to two thirds within 30 years, Spain, Portugal and Southern France would be locked in an unprecedented drought. Large parts of the Middle East and northern Africa would see daytime temperatures peak above 50o
C for weeks on end throughout summer., and drop to freezing or below during winter.
The thing is, although the corrected model makes some simplifications, for example abruptly doubling the atms CO2
at the half-way mark rather than modelling a ramping up, the corrected model is more likely to be accurate for predicting the behaviour of the Gulf Stream than prior models. Although, the timing is likely to be off due to it.. ie, more optimistic. Hence the large error bars.
Either way... Britain can NOT take the Gulf Stream and its moderating effects for granted any more.
Crossposted from: http://siliconshaman.dreamwidth.org/1232
comments so far over there.